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http://www.indiewire.com/article/real-numbers-from-imaginary-movies-the-distr...
JANUARY 31, 2012 | BY ORLY RAVID
"Distribution panels have it tough: There's always an audience for the information, but the panelists are always loath to give up real numbers. So this year Sundance tried to have it both ways with "Distribution X," a January 21 panel that asked top distributors to spill the numbers on imaginary projects.
The panelists were very real: independent producer Karin Chien acted as moderator for veteran sales agent Josh Braun of Submarine; New Video co-president Susan Margolin; Tom Quinn, co-president of TWC's new label RADiUS; distribution strategist Peter Broderick and filmmaker Tiffany Shlain ("Connected").
Pitching the mock movies were producer Alicia Van Couvering ("Tiny Furniture") and filmmaker Senain Kheshgi ("Project Kashmir"). Jay Van Hoy, executive producer of Sundance 2012 selection "Keep the Lights On," also presided, weighing in and doing the math.
Chien asked for "real numbers" and that panelists and audiences work to keep the speakers honest… with the caveat that, of course, the films don't exist. She compared the panel to a game show; "There's no right answer," she said, "just the best guess."
So with that, here's the Sundance 2012 episode of "The Gross is Right."
Case study #1: Documentary, pitched by Senain Kheshgi
This documentary is about the case of the 10 Muslim student alliance kids at U.C. Irvine who protested/heckled the Israeli Ambassador at a speech in 2010 and were charged with federal offenses.
Expert projections:
"Peter Broderick
The cheapest service deal is $25,000.
The film’s budget was too high; it would need to be cut, with monies reserved for distribution costs.
Could see $10,000 revenue from festivals.
Carve out the ability to sell DVD and digital from your own website.
The semi-theatrical component of the release would be the most critical and revenue generating.
Under this plan, you could make 50% of the budget back...."
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