Arthur S Clarke Predicting the Future in 1964: The Futurist's Dilemma via The Technium

In this 1964 clip from the BBC Horizon show, Arthur C. Clarke makes a fairly precise prediction, but one that is only half right. "We'll no longer commute in cities," he says, "we'll communicate instead." He also says, "I am perfectly serious when I suggest that you'll be able to call a man and not know where he is, whether he is in Tahiti or Bali or London." He got that part right, with cell phones everywhere, but on average we still do commute in cities.

However it is the preamble to his prediction, where he hedges his bets, that I think he is the most insightful. Clarke says that if you find a prediction reasonable, than it is probably wrong, because the future is not reasonable; it is fantastic! But if you could return from the future with the exact truth about what will happen, no one would believe you because the future is too fantastic! By fantastic he means issuing from the realm of fantasy and the imagination -- beyond what we expect.

via kk.org

Posted via email from Siobhan O'Flynn's 1001 Tales